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• Revenue Updates

Revenue Updates

By Peggy Lynch

We are all waiting for the May 14th Revenue Forecast from our State Economist Carl Riccadonna at the Office of Economic Analysis to be presented to the Senate Committee on Finance and Revenue at 8 a.m.  The documents will not be released until they open the meeting, so, if you are watching ahead of time, you may need to “refresh” your computer connection in order to see the meeting materials.  The Economist will provide a verbal presentation with slides as well as providing a more complete in-depth report on his view of the world, the U.S. and Oregon’s economic outlook for 2025-27.  He will need to try to accurately forecast the revenue the state will receive by June of 2027 within 2% of the actual amount or yet another "kicker" will be available to Oregonians.  

Remember that the “kicker” is really money already paid in taxes, but, because the guess two years before wasn’t accurate, some of that money is returned to taxpayers in the form of a credit on their next taxes.  (There is currently a forecasted “kicker” of about $1.6 million from this current 2023-25 biennium.  That amount, based on the taxes you paid, will be calculated by Nov. 2025 to be a credit on your 2025 tax return.) There is still time for the current “kicker” to be used in whole or in part by the current legislature.  But the political climate is such that any action is likely to fail.  On the other hand, if the forecasted revenue for 2025-27 is less than forecasted as the state receives future quarterly forecasts, expect to see the potential for special sessions in order for Oregon to continue to have a balanced budget.  That will mean cuts to programs that may, by the end of this session, be budgeted for, but adjusted to meet the reality of the revenue expected to be received. 

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