Revenue
Legislative Report - Week of 5/19
Revenue Team
Coordinator: Peggy Lynch
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Natalie Briggs
Please see Governance Overview here.
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Revenue Updates
Revenue Updates
By Natalie Briggs
https://www.oregon.gov/das/oea/pages/forecastecorev.aspx
https://www.oregon.gov/das/oea/Documents/OEA-Forecast-0525.pdf
https://www.oregon.gov/das/oea/Documents/OEA-Forecast-slides-0525.pdf
The May 14th economic forecast highlights sluggish growth in the U.S. and Oregon economies, with an elevated risk of recession. Oregon’s GDP growth is forecasted to slow to 0.9% in 2025, marking a decline from previous estimates. However, stronger growth is projected for 2027, in anticipation of trade negotiations and a federal tax cut package.
Additionally, Oregon’s revenue outlook has weakened, with General Fund revenues for 2023-25 revised down by $165.2 million due to slower economic growth. Projections for personal and corporate tax collections have fallen by $144.8 million and $77.3 million, respectively, from Q1 estimates. General Fund revenues for 2025-27 are expected to decline by $334.2 million, with personal income taxes experiencing the largest downward adjustment of $529 million. As a result, total available resources are now $755.7 million lower than the prior forecast. Budgetary reserves remain substantial, with total reserves estimated at $5.1 billion at the end of 2023-25. General Fund revenue growth is forecasted to reach 12% in the 2025-2027 biennium, driven by anticipated recovery in personal and corporate income, as well as higher estate tax collections.